Anthropic's $1.5 Trillion IPO Is in Doubt: Investors Want a Discount

Anthropic's planned IPO — expected to value the AI company at around $1.5 trillion and raise up to $100 billion — is suddenly in doubt. Potential investors are pushing for a lower valuation and a bigger discount, according to Reuters, and the Wall Street Journal reports major investors are skeptical the $1.5 trillion figure can hold after this week's brutal AI stock selloff. The roadshow was due to start the week of November 9, with pricing the following week and a November listing — a timetable investors now question.

What happened

Reuters reported on November 6, citing four people familiar with investor discussions, that potential investors in Anthropic's highly anticipated initial public offering are raising doubts about whether the company can proceed with its planned roadshow next week in time for a November listing. Some view the recently discussed $1.5 trillion valuation as being at the high end of expectations, and investors are pushing for a more attractive valuation before committing.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday evening that IPO investors are skeptical Anthropic can achieve $1.5 trillion in a public listing. Three major investors planning to participate believe the valuation will probably need to come down, with one suggesting it could be closer to $1 trillion. The company could also raise less than the anticipated $100 billion, with one investor expecting the offering could be closer to $80 billion.

Anthropic declined to comment on the investor doubts. Executives and advisers are expected to meet in the coming days to weigh the options: price lower, raise less, or wait for calmer markets.

Why it's blowing up

The timing could hardly be worse. The doubts surfaced in the wake of a two-day AI market selloff following Tuesday's US midterm elections — on Thursday the Nasdaq plunged more than 5% in its worst session in over a year, as fears grew that a Democratic-controlled Congress could slow data centre development and tighten scrutiny of the AI buildout. More than 50 S&P 1500 technology stocks fell 10% or more on Thursday, and Truist's Keith Lerner noted tech has underperformed the S&P 500 by 10.7% over the past month, the most extreme one-month gap since May 2002.

Against that backdrop, investors are also waiting for a number Anthropic has not yet given them: its October revenue figure, which the company left blank in its updated S-1 filing. Two people familiar with the discussions told Reuters investors want that figure to judge whether the AI lab has re-accelerated growth after a slowdown in recent months. The Journal reported Anthropic's revenue run rate topped $80 billion at the end of October.

Prediction markets moved fast. On Polymarket, bettors now assign a 29% probability that Anthropic will not complete an IPO before November 30, up 11 points since Wednesday, while the probability of a launch on or before November 18 has fallen to 10% from 50% at the end of October.

Key facts

• Discussed valuation: about $1.5 trillion — down from hopes earlier this year of an October IPO at up to $2 trillion.
• Investor counter-view: closer to $1 trillion, according to one major investor cited by the Wall Street Journal.
• Expected raise: up to $100 billion, though one investor expects closer to $80 billion.
• Planned timetable: roadshow in the week of November 9, pricing the following week, listing in November — now in doubt, per Reuters.
• Filing status: Anthropic publicly filed its S-1 on October 26 and an updated filing that left October revenue blank.
• Company response: Anthropic declined to comment.

Sources: Reuters via The Hindu BusinessLine, Invezz, FXStreet, Investopedia.

What's next

Nothing has been officially delayed — Anthropic has announced no change, and the November plan is still formally intact. But the next few days matter: an S-1 amendment setting a price range would signal the deal is moving ahead, while continued weakness in AI stocks would strengthen the case for a discount or a delay. Reuters noted a delay could fuel wider concern about the health of the AI ecosystem, because so much of the stock market is now weighted toward large technology firms. For now, the biggest IPO of the AI era is a live test of how much public investors will still pay for AI after the selloff.

This article reports market news and investor discussions as reported by Reuters and the Wall Street Journal. It is not financial advice.

FAQ

Why is Anthropic's IPO in doubt?

Potential investors are pushing back on the discussed $1.5 trillion valuation after a sharp AI stock selloff, according to Reuters, and some doubt the roadshow can start the week of November 9 in time for a November listing.

What valuation do investors want for Anthropic?

The Wall Street Journal reported three major investors believe the valuation needs to come down, with one suggesting closer to $1 trillion, and the raise could be nearer $80 billion than $100 billion.

Has Anthropic delayed its IPO?

No official delay has been announced. Anthropic declined to comment, and executives and advisers are expected to discuss pricing lower, raising less, or waiting for steadier markets.

When was Anthropic's IPO supposed to happen?

The roadshow was expected to begin the week of November 9, with pricing the following week and a listing in November. Earlier this year, investors had expected an October IPO at a valuation as high as $2 trillion.