Fed Decision at 2pm, Microsoft and Alphabet at 4pm: The 48 Hours That Will Move the Whole Market

The biggest 48 hours of earnings season start Wednesday, October 28, 2026: the Federal Reserve announces its rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET, and about two hours later Microsoft and Alphabet report earnings after the close — followed by Amazon on Thursday and Apple on Monday, November 2. With roughly a third of the S&P 500 reporting this week and AI spending under the microscope, this is the stretch traders have been circling for weeks.

What Happened: A Super-Week Nobody Planned, Everybody Has to Trade

Three separate calendars have collided. The Federal Open Market Committee meets October 27–28 and announces its decision on Wednesday afternoon. Microsoft (fiscal Q1 2027) and Alphabet (Q3 2026) both report after the close that same day. Amazon follows after the close on Thursday, October 29, with U.S. GDP and PCE inflation data landing before Thursday's open. Apple closes the run on Monday, November 2 — its first earnings report under CEO John Ternus.

Expectations are unusually high. S&P 500 companies are on track to lift third-quarter earnings by more than 32%, according to LSEG IBES data cited by Reuters. Yet the market wobbled into the week, with the Nasdaq posting its biggest one-day drop since June as investors questioned the financing costs behind heavy AI data-center spending.

Why It's Blowing Up

Every preview published this weekend leads with the same question: not whether Big Tech grew, but how much it spent to grow. Reuters described Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon as three AI hyperscalers whose capital-spending forecasts will be closely watched. Microsoft guided Azure growth of about 45% in constant currency and Intelligent Cloud revenue of $40.95–41.25 billion, with quarterly capex guided at over $50 billion. Alphabet investors will test whether Google Cloud can hold its recent growth pace against a $195–205 billion capex range. Amazon guided net sales of $197.0–202.0 billion and operating income of $22.5–26.5 billion, after AWS grew 37% in Q2.

Layer the Fed on top and the stakes double. A hawkish surprise at 2 p.m. could reprice every earnings multiple before the first tech report even prints at 4 p.m.

Key Facts

Fed: Decision Wednesday, October 28 at 2:00 p.m. ET. PIMCO and most previews expect a hold at 3.75%–4.00% with a tightening bias; CME FedWatch priced about a 90.6% chance of a hold as of October 22, and prediction markets put hold odds around 91% on October 25.
Microsoft — Oct 28 after close: Consensus EPS about $4.71; company revenue guidance $89.85–90.95 billion; Azure growth near 45% is the number to watch.
Alphabet — Oct 28 after close: Consensus EPS about $2.94 on revenue near $112.7 billion, up almost 29% year over year.
Amazon — Oct 29 after close: Consensus EPS about $1.96; guidance was net sales of $197.0–202.0 billion and operating income of $22.5–26.5 billion.
Apple — Nov 2 after close: Guided September-quarter revenue growth of 9% to 11%; first report under CEO John Ternus.

What's Next

Watch three things in order: the Fed's language on a possible December hike at 2 p.m. Wednesday, Azure and Google Cloud growth versus capex guidance on Wednesday evening, and AWS growth plus Amazon's capex outlook on Thursday. This post reports what happened and what markets are watching — it is not financial advice, and it makes no buy, sell or hold recommendation.

FAQ

When do Microsoft and Alphabet report earnings?

Both report after the market close on Wednesday, October 28, 2026 — Microsoft for fiscal Q1 2027 and Alphabet for Q3 2026.

When is the Fed decision this week?

The FOMC announces its decision on Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 2:00 p.m. ET, hours before the Microsoft and Alphabet reports. Most previews expect a hold at 3.75%–4.00%.

When do Amazon and Apple report?

Amazon reports after the close on Thursday, October 29, 2026. Apple reports after the close on Monday, November 2, 2026.

What will markets watch most in these reports?

AI capital spending. Analysts are focused on Azure, Google Cloud and AWS growth measured against capex forecasts that run into the hundreds of billions of dollars.