India Defies Asia's AI Selloff: Nifty Set for a 200-Point Gap-Up on Reliance's Record Profit

India is set to open sharply higher on Monday, November 2, even as most of Asia slips on AI-spending fears. GIFT Nifty pointed to a gap-up of about 200 points for the Nifty 50, powered by a record quarterly profit from Reliance Industries, the second-highest GST collection on record, strong auto sales and a fall in oil prices.

What happened?

GIFT Nifty futures were at 23,258.5 at 7:58 a.m. IST on Monday, signalling a strong start for the Nifty 50, which closed at 23,053.1 on Friday, according to Reuters. Other trackers put GIFT Nifty near 23,300, roughly 200 points above Friday's futures close, as traders in Mumbai prepared for the first session of November.

The trigger was Reliance Industries, India's largest company by market value. Reliance reported net profit attributable to its owners up 40.6% year on year to Rs 25,548 crore for the quarter ended September 30, beating the average analyst estimate of about Rs 21,419 crore. Profit including associates rose to Rs 29,550 crore, the highest quarterly figure in the company's history, and consolidated revenue reached a record Rs 3.62 lakh crore.

The Reliance numbers behind the surge

Refining did the heavy lifting. Core earnings from Reliance's oil-to-chemicals business jumped about 68%, with segment EBITDA up 67.9% to Rs 25,203 crore, as firmer fuel and petrochemical margins and record crude processing lifted the world's largest single-site refining complex at Jamnagar.

Jio added the second engine. Jio Platforms, the group's digital services arm, grew core earnings 16.6%, and Reuters reported its quarterly net profit rose 13.7%. The results are Jio's first since its blockbuster stock-market debut last week, which made it India's second-biggest company by market value.

Retail was the soft spot. Retail core earnings fell, reflecting higher e-commerce spending and tougher quick-commerce competition. That weakness is why analysts describe the quarter as powerful but not flawless — energy and digital carried a result that retail did not.

Why is this blowing up?

First, the timing. India is opening into a global headwind: Japan's Nikkei fell about 0.5% and South Korea's market lost about 0.8% in early Monday trade as investors questioned AI spending, after the Nasdaq 100 tumbled 3.5% on Friday and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 7.2%. A 200-point gap-up against that backdrop is the definition of decoupling, and it is dominating Indian market coverage this morning.

Second, Reliance was not alone. Goods and Services Tax collections reached Rs 2.31 lakh crore in October, the second-highest monthly figure on record, according to The Hindu BusinessLine. India's largest carmaker, Maruti Suzuki, reported total sales growth of about 21%, and Bharat Electronics posted about a 20% rise in quarterly profit with revenue up 26.5%, Reuters reported.

Third, the external pressure eased. Brent crude fell to about $111 a barrel from a six-month high of $118 on Friday, as Iranian and Qatari officials held a third straight day of talks aimed at a deal to end the US-Israeli war on Iran. Cheaper oil is a direct relief for India, a major importer.

Fourth, foreign money is returning. Foreign investors bought Rs 36 billion (about $379.5 million) of Indian shares on Friday — their sixth buying session in the last ten — helping the Nifty rise 1.9% and the Sensex 2.7% in October and end a two-month losing streak.

What's next?

The open is only a signal, not a result. Traders will watch whether the Nifty holds above 23,000 once cash trading begins, how Reliance itself trades after the numbers, and whether foreign buying continues, as noted in Upstox's trade setup. Beyond Monday, the week brings Tuesday's US midterm elections, more earnings in India and the US, and Friday's US jobs report — any of which could test the optimism. This post reports what happened and why markets reacted; it is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

Sources

Reuters — Indian shares set for positive start on talks to end Iran war, strong Reliance earnings
TradingView / Reuters — Reliance posts 40% rise in quarterly profit
The Hindu BusinessLine — Nifty likely to open 200 points higher
CNBC TV18 via TradingView — Asian equities opened lower on Monday

FAQ

Why is the Nifty set to open about 200 points higher?

GIFT Nifty traded roughly 200 points above Friday's close, driven by Reliance Industries' record profit, strong GST and auto data, falling oil prices and renewed foreign buying.

How much profit did Reliance Industries report?

Net profit attributable to owners rose 40.6% to Rs 25,548 crore for the September quarter, beating estimates of about Rs 21,419 crore, while profit including associates hit a record Rs 29,550 crore.

Why are other Asian markets falling while India rises?

Japan and South Korea slipped in early trade on worries about the returns on massive AI spending after a sharp US tech selloff on Friday, while India's open is being driven by domestic earnings and data.

What could change the mood this week?

Tuesday's US midterm elections, further earnings reports, movements in oil prices around the Iran talks, and Friday's US jobs report are the main events traders are watching.