Oil Drops 4%: WTI Falls Below $100 as Iran Talks Raise Hopes

Oil prices fell more than 4% on Monday, November 2, 2026, with Brent crude down 4.2% to $108.64 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) down 4.2% to $99.71 — below $100 — as talks between Iranian and Qatari officials raised hopes of a deal to end the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.

What happened

Brent crude futures fell $4.79, or 4.2%, to $108.64 a barrel by 1020 GMT on Monday, while WTI traded at $99.71, down $4.41, or 4.2%, according to Reuters reporting carried by multiple outlets. The fall extended an early slide that had Brent near $109.23 and WTI at $100.14 by 0900 GMT, before prices slipped further through the $100 line for U.S. crude.

The move matters because Brent had ended October at its highest level in six months, on fears the conflict could escalate again after Tuesday's U.S. midterm elections. Monday's drop unwound part of that war premium in a single session.

Why oil is falling

The immediate catalyst was diplomacy. Iranian negotiators have left talks with Qatari mediators aimed at ending the war with the United States, and a draft proposal is now being circulated, with a follow-up meeting possible, an official briefed on the talks said on Monday. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Sunday that the purpose of the "ongoing and progressing" talks was to continue consultations with the Qatari mediators, adding that Tehran was prepared for "both defence and diplomacy."

Analysts framed the fall as hope, not certainty. Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM said the new month brought "renewed hopes of a breakthrough in the Iranian stalemate." Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said lingering hopes of diplomatic progress, combined with the absence of any meaningful military escalation over the weekend, had taken some of the immediate heat out of prices for now.

Why it is blowing up now

The Strait of Hormuz is the reason a diplomatic headline can move oil this fast. The talks follow a recent increase in attacks on oil tankers transiting the strait, and the war that broke out at the end of February has disrupted shipping through it for months. Any credible path to reopening normal flows would ease one of the market's biggest supply fears — and any setback could just as quickly restore the premium.

Supply is also finding a way through: Saudi Arabia increased crude exports in October versus September, despite Houthi attacks on its energy infrastructure, according to two of three ship-tracking companies cited by Reuters.

The warning underneath the fall

Traders were not treating Monday's drop as proof that supply is safe. The chief executive of Abu Dhabi's state oil company ADNOC said the world has drained nearly 1 billion barrels from inventories since the war disrupted shipping through Hormuz — a reminder that stockpiles have been doing the work that normal flows usually do.

Goldman Sachs made the same point from the other direction. The bank raised its oil price forecasts on Sunday, citing elevated supply risks, and said Brent could jump to $140 in 2027 if Gulf oil output stays 3.5 million barrels per day below its 2025 average. It named intensified shipping attacks, damage to oil infrastructure and a more persistent risk premium as the key triggers for further gains.

Key facts

• Brent crude: down $4.79, or 4.2%, to $108.64 a barrel by 1020 GMT on Monday, November 2, 2026.
• WTI crude: down $4.41, or 4.2%, to $99.71 a barrel — below the $100 mark.
• Catalyst: Iranian negotiators left talks with Qatari mediators; a draft proposal is circulating and a follow-up meeting is possible.
• Context: Brent ended October at a six-month high; the world has drained nearly 1 billion barrels from inventories since February, according to ADNOC's chief executive.
• Counterweight: Goldman Sachs raised its forecasts on Sunday and said Brent could reach $140 in 2027 if Gulf output stays 3.5 million barrels a day below its 2025 average.

Sources: Reuters via Oil Monster, Energy News Africa, MarineLink

What happens next

The next test is whether the draft proposal turns into a follow-up meeting — and then into ships moving freely through Hormuz again. Until that happens, Monday's fall prices a chance of relief, not relief itself. With U.S. midterm elections on Tuesday and inventories already drawn down, oil remains exposed to a sharp move in either direction on the next headline. This article reports what happened and why markets reacted; it is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset.

FAQ

Why did oil fall more than 4% on Monday?

Oil fell because talks between Iranian and Qatari officials raised hopes of a deal to end the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, which could ease the Middle East supply disruptions that have supported prices.

What were Brent and WTI prices?

By 1020 GMT, Brent crude was down 4.2% at $108.64 a barrel and U.S. WTI crude was down 4.2% at $99.71 a barrel, below $100.

Has a deal been reached?

No deal was reported. Iranian negotiators left talks with Qatari mediators, a draft proposal is being circulated, and a follow-up meeting is possible, according to an official briefed on the talks.

Why could oil still rise again?

Inventories have been drained by nearly 1 billion barrels since February, and Goldman Sachs said Brent could reach $140 in 2027 if Gulf output stays 3.5 million barrels a day below its 2025 average.