Palantir Earnings on Monday: A $2.18 Billion Bar and a 13% Move Priced In

Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR) reports third-quarter earnings on Monday, November 2, after the U.S. market close, and Wall Street expects earnings of about $0.41 per share on revenue of about $2.18 billion — roughly 85% revenue growth from a year ago. Options traders are pricing in a move of about 13% in either direction, the stock fell 6.27% on Friday to close at $184.11, and analysts are split from a $90 Sell target to a $250 Buy target. That disagreement is exactly why this report is trending on Sunday.

What happened

Nothing has been reported yet — and that is the story. A wave of earnings previews published on Sunday, November 1 put Palantir at the top of the week's calendar, alongside Apple, which also reports on Monday. Palantir heads into the print after a remarkable second quarter, when revenue jumped 93% year over year to $1.935 billion and U.S. commercial revenue surged 149% to $764 million. The company then raised its full-year 2026 revenue outlook to between $8.150 billion and $8.158 billion.

For the third quarter itself, Palantir guided revenue to between $2.160 billion and $2.164 billion, with adjusted operating income of $1.292 billion to $1.296 billion. Consensus sits slightly above the top of that range, at about $2.18 billion. In other words, investors are not just asking for a beat of the company's own guide — they have already priced one in.

Why it's blowing up

Palantir has become one of the purest public bets on enterprise artificial intelligence, and its valuation leaves little room for an ordinary quarter. Previews note the stock trading at about 89 times forward earnings, up roughly 46% to 50% since its last earnings report and about 50% to 60% over three months, even after Friday's 6.27% slide during the broad tech sell-off. Government revenue is expected at about $1.04 billion, up about 64%, while commercial revenue is pegged at about $892 million, more than double a year ago, according to analyst estimates cited in the previews.

The analyst split captures the argument. Baird reiterated a Buy rating with a $250 price target. RBC reiterated a Sell rating with a $90 target, saying the risk and reward skew negative. TipRanks counts a Moderate Buy consensus from 19 Buys, four Holds and two Sells, with an average target of $218.95 — about 19% above Friday's close. Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to Buy with a $230 target in October, and JPMorgan recently initiated coverage at Overweight with a $262 target for December 2027. When credible firms are $160 apart on the same stock, an earnings night becomes an event.

Key facts

Report time: Monday, November 2, 2026, after the market close, with a conference call scheduled for 5:00 p.m. ET.
Consensus: about $0.41 in earnings per share and about $2.18 billion in revenue, up roughly 85% year over year.
Company guidance: third-quarter revenue of $2.160 billion to $2.164 billion; full-year revenue guidance of $8.150 billion to $8.158 billion.
Last quarter: revenue rose 93% to $1.935 billion; U.S. commercial revenue rose 149% to $764 million, and commercial total contract value rose 153% to $2.132 billion.
Stock setup: shares fell 6.27% on Friday to $184.11, near a 52-week range of $106.37 to $212.94; options imply about a 13.3% post-earnings move.

What's next

Three things will decide the reaction. First, U.S. commercial growth: that segment carried last quarter, and net dollar retention of 157% set a standard that is hard to repeat. Second, guidance — both for the fourth quarter and for the full year. Several previews make the same point: a print that merely matches guidance may not be enough for a stock that has run this far, while another full-year raise would support the bull case. Third, margins: management has warned that third-quarter expenses would rise with hiring and marketing, so investors will watch whether the roughly 62% adjusted operating margin from the second quarter holds.

The timing adds pressure. Palantir reports into a market still shaken by Friday's tech sell-off, on the eve of the November 3 midterm elections and ahead of Friday's October jobs report. A strong print could steady the AI trade; a miss, in a stock priced for perfection, could move far more than the index. This post reports expectations and market reaction only — it is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

Sources

FAQ

When does Palantir report earnings?

Palantir reports third-quarter 2026 results on Monday, November 2, after the U.S. market close, with its call at 5:00 p.m. ET.

What does Wall Street expect from Palantir?

Analysts expect about $0.41 per share on about $2.18 billion in revenue, roughly 85% revenue growth from a year ago and slightly above the company's own guidance.

Why could Palantir stock move so much?

Options traders are pricing in about a 13% move because the stock has risen sharply, trades at a high valuation, and analysts' targets range from $90 to $250.

What will investors watch most closely?

U.S. commercial revenue growth, any raise to full-year guidance, and whether margins hold as hiring and marketing costs rise.