SpaceX Stock Jumps 9%: Musk Says One Quarter Will Top NASA's Budget

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) shares jumped 8.6% on Friday to close at $134.27, after Elon Musk told investors that this quarter alone the company will take in more revenue than NASA's entire annual budget — roughly $24.8 billion in three months. Speaking virtually at the 33rd Annual Baron Investment Conference in New York on Friday, November 6, Musk said fourth-quarter revenue should rise about 70% from the third quarter. Investors bought the pitch after a bruising week, and the stock rebounded from a two-day slide linked to Democratic midterm wins.

What happened

Musk put a hard number on SpaceX's transformation. Third-quarter revenue was $14.58 billion, up 161% from a year earlier. A 70% jump from there lands near $24.8 billion for the fourth quarter. By comparison, NASA received $24.4 billion in regular fiscal 2026 appropriations — meaning, on Musk's numbers, one private company's single quarter would exceed the space agency's full-year budget. "SpaceX revenue this quarter alone will be substantially higher than NASA's entire annual budget," he said.

He went further. Musk said SpaceX could reach an annualised revenue rate above $100 billion by December, and that the rate could exceed $500 billion by December 2027. He was explicit that these are his estimates, not guarantees: this is not a promise, it is what he thinks will happen — his best guess. That caution matters, because analyst consensus, drawn from 37 estimates, puts full-year 2027 revenue at roughly $180 billion, far below a $500 billion annualised exit rate.

Why the stock is blowing up

Three things landed in the same week. First, the forecast itself: a near-$25 billion quarter would confirm that SpaceX's growth is no longer mainly about rockets. Its AI business generated $7.56 billion in the third quarter, and Anthropic accounted for 34.5% of total revenue, making the AI lab SpaceX's largest single customer, according to Bloomberg reporting cited in market coverage. Second, SpaceX disclosed a deal on Wednesday selecting Qualcomm's Dragonwing platforms and software for the planned US terrestrial mobile network of Starlink Mobile, covering tens of thousands of cell sites with deployment scheduled to begin in 2027. Third, the Federal Aviation Administration on Thursday proposed simplified rules for commercial launches and reentries, alongside an overhaul of its licensing framework in 2027.

The timing amplified the move. Tesla and SpaceX had together lost more than $420 billion in market value over the previous two sessions as Democrats swept Congress, raising questions about scrutiny, permitting and data-centre expansion in Texas. Friday's 8.6% rise, on volume of about 114 million shares, clawed back part of that slide — but the shares remain about 16% lower over the past month and roughly 40% below their 52-week high of $225.64.

Key facts

• Close: $134.27 on Friday, November 6, up $10.65 (+8.62%) from $123.62.
• Q3 2026 revenue: $14.58 billion, up 161% year over year.
• Q4 forecast (Musk): about +70% versus Q3, near $24.8 billion.
• NASA comparison: $24.4 billion in regular fiscal 2026 appropriations.
• 2027 claim: annualised revenue above $500 billion by December 2027, versus consensus full-year 2027 revenue of about $180 billion.
• Spending: CFO Bret Johnsen expects fourth-quarter capital expenditure of $35 billion to $40 billion.

Sources: ad-hoc-news analysis, PakTechstan on the Baron conference remarks, The Cerbat Gem SPCX summary, StockLrn SPCX price data.

What's next

The next test is delivery, not talk. A $500 billion run-rate depends on the AI build-out, the Starlink Mobile network build from 2027, and capital spending that is already enormous — $35 billion to $40 billion in a single quarter. It also depends heavily on one customer: when a single client provides about a third of revenue, that concentration is both the growth engine and the biggest risk in the story. And the political risk that knocked the stock down earlier in the week has not gone away; Democratic control of Congress could still mean closer scrutiny of data centres and permitting. The fourth-quarter results will show whether the $24.8 billion quarter was real — everything beyond that remains Musk's forecast, clearly labelled as such by Musk himself.

FAQ

Why did SpaceX stock rise 9% on Friday?

Shares closed up 8.62% at $134.27 after Musk forecast fourth-quarter revenue near $24.8 billion, alongside a Qualcomm deal for Starlink Mobile and proposed simpler FAA launch rules, rebounding from a two-day midterm-related slide.

How much revenue did Musk say SpaceX will make this quarter?

About $24.8 billion — roughly 70% above the third quarter's $14.58 billion, and more than NASA's $24.4 billion fiscal 2026 appropriation for a full year.

What is the $500 billion figure?

It is Musk's estimate of SpaceX's annualised revenue rate by December 2027. He cautioned it is not a promise, and analyst consensus for full-year 2027 revenue is far lower, at about $180 billion.

Who is SpaceX's biggest customer?

Anthropic, which accounted for 34.5% of SpaceX's total revenue, with the AI business generating $7.56 billion in the third quarter of 2026.