Tesla Stock Jumps 6% as Barclays Turns Bullish — $450 Target Bets on a SpaceX Premium

The short answer: Tesla stock jumped about 6% on Monday, October 26, 2026, after Barclays analyst Dan Levy upgraded the shares to Overweight — the bank's version of Buy — from Equal Weight, and lifted his 12-month price target to $450 from $370. Tesla traded at $394.60, up $22.38 or 6.01%, at 12:09 p.m. ET, according to The Motley Fool's midday market coverage, after closing Friday at $372.22.

What happened

Barclays made the call on Monday morning, before the opening bell. Levy raised his target by $80 in one move. Measured against Friday's close of $372.22, the new $450 target implies about 20.9% upside, Finbold calculated. Stocktwits, reporting the same note at 8:45 a.m. ET, put the implied upside at close to 19% from the levels it was using that morning. Tesla shares were already up 2.3% in premarket trading after the note appeared, and the gain built through the morning as the broader market rallied — the Nasdaq Composite was up 1.22% to 26,271 and the S&P 500 was up 0.91% to 7,693 at 11:31 a.m. ET. Zacks reported that the shares also broke out above their 200-day moving average on heavy volume after the upgrade.

The upgrade lands days after mixed third-quarter results: revenue of $28.05 billion just missed the $28.3 billion expected, according to Fiscal.ai figures cited by Stocktwits, while adjusted earnings of $0.48 per share beat estimates. Deliveries fell 2% to 486,532. Barclays is arguing the mixed quarter is not the story — what comes next is.

Why it is blowing up

The first reason is a possible SpaceX combination. Last week, chief executive Elon Musk confirmed that Tesla and SpaceX had formed independent committees to explore a possible combination. Musk called a merger a "good idea," pointing to opportunities to combine artificial intelligence, semiconductor manufacturing, robotics and connectivity — but he also stressed that an agreement is not a "certainty." Barclays' view, as Stocktwits and Finbold both reported, is that any such deal could bring a premium for Tesla shareholders, and that possibility alone justifies a higher target.

The second reason is the car business itself. Barclays expects Tesla's automotive business to return to growth this year after two years of declines, with further upside in 2027. Levy pointed to rising adoption of Full Self-Driving (FSD) and higher exports from the Shanghai factory. More than 75% of new North American deliveries in Q3 included FSD subscriptions, and cumulative unsupervised Robotaxi miles rose eightfold in the quarter — what Finbold summarised as a "sharp inflection in Robotaxi miles driven."

The third reason is energy. Barclays expects Tesla's energy storage shipments to grow by more than 50% in 2027, driven by strong data-centre demand. That makes the battery business a central part of the bullish case, tied to the same AI build-out driving the wider tech sector.

Finally, there is the contrast: Tesla is still the worst-performing Magnificent Seven stock in 2026, down more than 15% year to date, yet in October it has led that group, gaining more than 7.3% before Monday. A laggard suddenly leading its peers draws attention.

Key facts

Upgrade: Barclays' Dan Levy moved Tesla to Overweight from Equal Weight on Monday, October 26, 2026.
Price target: Raised to $450 from $370 — about 20.9% above Friday's $372.22 close.
Market reaction: Tesla traded at $394.60, up 6.01%, at 12:09 p.m. ET on Monday.
Energy outlook: Barclays expects energy storage shipments to grow more than 50% in 2027.
Wider Street view: TipRanks data cited by Finbold shows 14 positive, 11 Hold and two Sell ratings, with an average target of $414.25. JPMorgan raised its target to $430 on October 22 while keeping a Hold-equivalent rating.

What's next

Nothing about the SpaceX idea is agreed — treat it as an explored possibility, not a pending deal, with no terms announced. The nearer tests are operational: whether demand and FSD adoption keep improving, whether Robotaxi miles keep climbing, and whether energy shipments build toward the 2027 growth Barclays expects. This week also brings a Federal Reserve decision and earnings from Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon. This post reports what Barclays said and how the market reacted; it is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold Tesla shares.

FAQ

Why did Tesla stock jump on October 26, 2026?

Tesla rose about 6% after Barclays upgraded the stock to Overweight and raised its price target to $450 from $370, citing a possible SpaceX premium, returning car growth, FSD adoption and energy growth.

What is Barclays' new Tesla price target?

$450, up from $370. That is about 20.9% above Tesla's Friday, October 23 closing price of $372.22.

Is a Tesla-SpaceX merger confirmed?

No. Elon Musk confirmed last week that both companies formed independent committees to explore a combination, called it a "good idea," and stressed that an agreement is not a certainty. No deal or terms have been announced.

How has Tesla stock performed in 2026?

Tesla is down more than 15% year to date and is the worst-performing Magnificent Seven stock this year, but it has led that group in October, gaining more than 7.3% before Monday's rise.