Vistra Stock Jumps 11%: Record $2.38 Billion EBITDA on AI Power Demand

Vistra (NYSE: VST) closed up 10.55% at $124.80 on Friday, November 6, after the power generator reported record third-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $2.378 billion, up more than 50% from a year earlier, and raised the midpoint of its 2026 guidance. The stock added $11.91 from its previous close of $112.89, making Vistra one of Friday's biggest large-cap winners on a day when the Nasdaq bounced 1.09% as chip stocks recovered.

What happened at Vistra in Q3 2026?

Vistra reported its third-quarter results before the market opened on Friday, November 6, in a release filed with the SEC. Operating revenue rose 27.7% to $6.347 billion, from $4.971 billion in the third quarter of 2025. Net income rose to $1.14 billion, compared with $652 million a year earlier, a figure that included a $559 million unrealized hedging gain tied to future years. Earnings per share were $3.25, topping the consensus estimate of $2.98, according to reports of the release.

The headline number was profitability from ongoing operations. Adjusted EBITDA reached $2.378 billion, up 50.4% from $1.581 billion a year earlier, and the company described it on its earnings call as a record third quarter. The Texas segment alone contributed $1.227 billion of adjusted EBITDA, up from $784 million a year earlier.

Why did Vistra stock jump 11%?

Three drivers explained the profit surge. First, Vistra realized higher energy and capacity prices across its fleet. Second, plants acquired from Lotus contributed a full three months to the quarter. Third, Martin Lake Unit 1, one of its Texas generating units, returned to service. Together, those factors turned a 28% rise in revenue into a rise of more than 50% in adjusted EBITDA.

The move also had a rebound element. Vistra shares had fallen sharply into the report, with the previous close of $112.89 sitting near the stock's recent low after a decline of roughly 25% over the past month. A clean beat, a guidance raise and a bigger buyback gave buyers who had watched the stock slide a concrete reason to come back on Friday, when power and AI-linked names were already recovering from Thursday's market rout.

What did Vistra say about AI power demand?

Vistra sells electricity into the markets where America's biggest data centers are being built, so its results have become a closely watched read on AI power demand. Chief Executive Jim Burke told analysts that demand from hyperscalers and other large-load customers remained strong, and Reuters reported that he said that demand had not shifted from Texas to the PJM market after the midterm elections. That comment mattered because investors spent Thursday worrying that politics and permitting could slow the data-center buildout that power companies are counting on.

Management also pointed to the recent closing of the Cogentrix acquisition alongside the narrowed guidance, adding another fleet of plants to the portfolio at a moment when large customers are competing for firm power.

What guidance did Vistra give for 2026 and 2027?

Vistra narrowed its 2026 ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA guidance to $7.1 billion to $7.5 billion, with a higher midpoint than its previous range, and put 2026 adjusted free cash flow before growth at $4.3 billion to $4.7 billion. For 2027, the company initiated adjusted EBITDA guidance of $7.7 billion to $8.5 billion, with adjusted free cash flow before growth of $4.3 billion to $5.1 billion.

The board also expanded the company's share repurchase authorization by $1.5 billion, leaving about $2.5 billion available for buybacks. For a stock that had lost about a third of its value over the past year before Friday, that combination of rising guidance and a larger buyback was the core of the market's reaction.

What happens next for Vistra?

The next test is whether realized prices and large-load demand hold into the winter, and whether the newly acquired plants keep lifting segment earnings at the same pace. Vistra's own hedging gives some visibility: the company said it had hedged around 100% of expected generation for 2026, 98% for 2027 and 78% for 2028 as of late October. Its fourth-quarter results, tentatively expected in late February 2027, will be the next full check on the guidance it set on Friday.

Sources: Market Briefer, TradingView News, XTB, StockAnalysis

FAQ

Why did Vistra stock rise on November 6, 2026?

Vistra beat earnings expectations, reported record third-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $2.378 billion, raised the midpoint of its 2026 guidance and expanded its buyback, so the stock closed up 10.55% at $124.80.

How much money did Vistra make in Q3 2026?

Vistra reported net income of $1.14 billion on revenue of $6.347 billion, up 27.7% from a year earlier, with ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA up more than 50% to $2.378 billion.

What is Vistra's guidance for 2026 and 2027?

Vistra narrowed 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $7.1 billion to $7.5 billion and initiated 2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $7.7 billion to $8.5 billion.

How is Vistra linked to AI data centers?

Vistra generates and sells power in Texas and other markets where hyperscalers are building data centers, and its chief executive said large-load demand remained strong after the midterm elections.